No Crystal Ball

I am not Criswell (as fans of Ed Wood films well know). I do not have a crystal ball. I have no inside information. The S & P 500 ended 2008 at 903. My hunch, at least as of this moment, is that it will end 2009 closer to 1500 than 600. Only a week ago my hunch was just the opposite. Why the change? Is it because of the mini-rally during the last two trading days of 2008? Is it because global economic and geo-political expectations for 2009 are so overwhelmingly dismal that it might only take a few small positive events to trigger an upward push? Is it because there is so much cash on the sidelines looking for something to invest it? Or perhaps it's because I'm in a blissfully calm state of mind at the moment contemplating my band's (Jersey Petroleum) upcoming one song mini-set this evening during the New Years Day marathon at Bowery Poetry Club? FYI: Anyone who might be interested can listen to Jersey Petroleum's studio and live recordings on our website: jerseypetroleum.com